2017 Qualifiers - Analysis

Once again, we're ready to analyze the results of qualifiers from this year. Despite all the turmoil the league has faced since August, and still continues to face with a struggling cricket brand, the Tournament is as healthy as ever. For Qualifiers, there was a guiding question this year: Does making a ball on the break create a positive impact on the overall game? Here's a table containing some data as to what we found.

	7ball	8ball	9ball	10ball	12ball	Rotation	15ball	Accuracy	Combined
Valid	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
AVGY	8.6	19.5	13.3	15.2	21.5	26.3	22.3	17.9	144.6
AVGN	11.6	20.9	14.9	16.8	21.1	28.3	25.9	19.8	159.3
SPB	1.5	1.4	1.6	1.6	1.8	1.8	1.6	1.3	1.575
DIFF	3	1.4	1.6	1.6	-0.4	2	3.6	1.9	1.8375
EFF	Yes	Minimal	Minimal	Minimal	Negative	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes, marginal
CY	55	49	74	44	111	56	49	52	490
CN	89	95	70	100	33	88	95	92	662
PY	38.20%	34.00%	51.30%	30.60%	77.00%	38.90%	34.00%	36.10%	42.50%
PN	61.80%	66.00%	48.70%	69.40%	23.00%	61.10%	66.00%	63.90%	57.50%

What we found here was a little bit yes, and a little bit of no. Going down the table, the first row addresses the validity of the results. For an event to have a valid result, I set a standard of having at least one-third of all games in each event having yes and no results. This meant that there needed to be 48 games with a ball on the break, and 48 without. This standard was met in six of the eight events, with only 10-ball and 12-ball failing to reach this mark. The next two columns deal with the averages for games with a successful break and those without. In all but 12-ball, the act of a ball going in on the break led to a lower shots-per-game average than those games without a ball on the break. When improvements were made, this usually was by about a shot and a half per game, as labeled in the DIFF row. The SPB (shots per ball) row shows how many shots are required per ball, by dividing the average shots per game by the number of balls in a rack for that game. The SPB and DIFF rows allow us to determine the Effect, which is where things get interesting. If DIFF is greater than SPB, making a ball on the break has a larger impact on the game than just removing a ball from the table (most likely that the remaining shots are easier to make as well, or potentially a confidence boost). This was seen in 7-ball, Rotation, 15-ball, and Accuracy. In these four events, the change was anywhere from 0.2 to 2 shots per game reduced, on average. In 8-ball, 9-ball, and 10-ball, the effect of making a ball on the break was generally considered minimal, as there was basically no change between the pacing of shots per ball whether a ball was made or not. In a simpler way, balls were potted at the same rate regardless of the success of the break in these three events. Finally, to address 12-ball individually, it must be shown that the sample size of unsuccessful breaks was very small. As such, and with the stringent potting requirements of the game that give it the highest shots per ball rate, it was seen that making a ball on the break was a bad thing. This is likely the result of a number of outliers, where players were able to make a ball on the break, but then struggled to make one last ball.

As a whole, a ball being made on the break occurred 42.5% of the time. This would indicate that in a standard UPCL series, seeing a ball go in on the break will occur approximately once (in the short three-game series) to four times (in Championship level nine-game series). Combining the research shows that making a ball on the break, on average, saves about a quarter of a shot per game. While this has no useful application in a competitive sense, it may go to show why breaking is important to the game. It may also have something to do with the improvements made year-over-year in shots per game and per qualifying session. Successful breaking may have occurred upwards of 2-5% more often this year than in 2016.

On a player by player basis, this is how things looked.

Rank	Player	Total	Grade	Errors	Raw Total	Error prop	Revised rank	Change	Revised Grade
1	Mams	118	A++	7	111	5.93%	2	-1	A+
2	Bryant	119	A++	11	108	9.24%	1	1	A++
3	Bear	122	A+	5	117	4.10%	3	0	A+
4	Puff III	128	A+	10	118	7.81%	4	0	A+
5	Marsell	134	A	8	126	5.97%	10	-5	A-
6	Isabella	135	A	11	124	8.15%	6	0	A
7	Peach	135	A	11	124	8.15%	7	0	A
8	Sugar	135	A	13	122	9.63%	5	3	A
9	Pedey	136	A	11	125	8.09%	9	0	A-
10	Violetta	136	A	12	124	8.82%	8	2	A
11	Cheddar	137	A-	3	134	2.19%	26	-15	B+
12	Dewey	137	A-	6	131	4.38%	15	-3	B+
13	Wings	137	A-	6	131	4.38%	16	-3	B+
14	Whiskers	138	A-	6	132	4.35%	20	-6	B+
15	Cobalt	138	A-	7	131	5.07%	17	-2	B+
16	Starlight	138	A-	11	127	7.97%	12	4	A-
17	Misty	140	A-	8	132	5.71%	21	-4	B+
18	Shadow	140	A-	13	127	9.29%	13	5	A-
19	Leonette	141	A-	6	135	4.26%	30	-11	B
20	Solaris	141	A-	6	135	4.26%	31	-11	B
21	Prism	141	A-	7	134	4.96%	27	-6	B+
22	B. Chapman	142	B+	7	135	4.93%	32	-10	B
23	Slinks	142	B+	11	131	7.75%	18	5	B+
24	Ruby	143	B+	7	136	4.90%	38	-14	B
25	Stripes	143	B+	8	135	5.59%	33	-8	B
26	Ms. Kitty	143	B+	9	134	6.29%	28	-2	B+
27	Frosty	143	B+	15	128	10.49%	14	13	A-
28	Hughbert	143	B+	17	126	11.89%	11	17	A-
29	A. C	144	B+	11	133	7.64%	24	5	B+
30	Bells	144	B+	11	133	7.64%	25	5	B+
31	Delila	145	B+	9	136	6.21%	39	-8	B
32	Citrus	145	B+	10	135	6.90%	34	-2	B
33	Spot	145	B+	13	132	8.97%	22	11	B+
34	Stealth	145	B+	13	132	8.97%	23	11	B+
35	Goldy	146	B+	6	140	4.11%	58	-23	B-
36	Taylor	146	B+	8	138	5.48%	48	-12	B
37	Americus	146	B+	9	137	6.16%	43	-6	B
38	Bandit	146	B+	11	135	7.53%	35	3	B
39	Leonardo	146	B+	11	135	7.53%	36	3	B
40	Sally	147	B	8	139	5.44%	53	-13	B
41	Watermelon	147	B	10	137	6.80%	44	-3	B
42	Boots	147	B	11	136	7.48%	40	2	B
43	Dusty	147	B	11	136	7.48%	41	2	B
44	Jasmine	147	B	16	131	10.88%	19	25	B+
45	Brownie	148	B	11	137	7.43%	45	0	B
46	Missy	148	B	11	137	7.43%	46	0	B
47	Sydney	148	B	14	134	9.46%	29	18	B+
48	Acorn	149	B	10	139	6.71%	54	-6	B
49	Jennifer	150	B	7	143	4.67%	70	-21	B-
50	Valencia	150	B	9	141	6.00%	61	-11	B-
51	Hoot	150	B	10	140	6.67%	59	-8	B-
52	Sierra	150	B	14	136	9.33%	42	10	B
53	Klaus	151	B	9	142	5.96%	64	-11	B-
54	Nibbles	151	B	12	139	7.95%	55	-1	B
55	Sleepy B.	151	B	12	139	7.95%	56	-1	B
56	Oreo	151	B	13	138	8.61%	49	7	B
57	Kirstin	152	B-	4	148	2.63%	104	-47	C+
58	Sparkles	152	B-	5	147	3.29%	102	-44	C+
59	Puff I	152	B-	7	145	4.61%	83	-24	C+
60	Waluigi	152	B-	14	138	9.21%	50	10	B
61	Shiny	153	B-	10	143	6.54%	71	-10	B-
62	Shaggy	153	B-	15	138	9.80%	51	11	B
63	Snowball	153	B-	15	138	9.80%	52	11	B
64	Lorde	153	B-	16	137	10.46%	47	17	B
65	Chicky Phil	154	B-	8	146	5.19%	94	-29	C+
66	Lionel	154	B-	9	145	5.84%	84	-18	C+
67	Easter	154	B-	11	143	7.14%	72	-5	B-
68	Precious	154	B-	12	142	7.79%	65	3	B-
69	Snuggle	154	B-	13	141	8.44%	62	7	B-
70	Juno	154	B-	15	139	9.74%	57	13	B
71	Nicole	155	B-	6	149	3.87%	110	-39	C+
72	Ice Cream	155	B-	7	148	4.52%	105	-33	C+
73	Gizmo	155	B-	8	147	5.16%	103	-30	C+
74	Kiwi	155	B-	9	146	5.81%	95	-21	C+
75	Dreamy	155	B-	10	145	6.45%	85	-10	C+
76	Shannon	155	B-	10	145	6.45%	86	-10	C+
77	Dani	155	B-	11	144	7.10%	77	0	B-
78	Debby	155	B-	11	144	7.10%	78	0	B-
79	Puff II	155	B-	14	141	9.03%	63	16	B-
80	Hoppy	155	B-	15	140	9.68%	60	20	B-
81	Spirit	156	B-	12	144	7.69%	79	2	B-
82	Ted	156	B-	14	142	8.97%	66	16	B-
83	Mr. Snowman	156	B-	21	135	13.46%	37	46	B
84	Twinkie II	157	C+	11	146	7.01%	96	-12	C+
85	Diddley	157	C+	12	145	7.64%	87	-2	C+
86	Mario	157	C+	14	143	8.92%	73	13	B-
87	Hannah	158	C+	12	146	7.59%	97	-10	C+
88	Celestia	158	C+	13	145	8.23%	88	0	C+
89	Crystal	158	C+	14	144	8.86%	80	9	B-
90	Max	158	C+	14	144	8.86%	81	9	B-
91	Smokey	158	C+	14	144	8.86%	82	9	B-
92	Princess	158	C+	15	143	9.49%	74	18	B-
93	Pounce	158	C+	16	142	10.13%	67	26	B-
94	Tigerette	158	C+	16	142	10.13%	68	26	B-
95	Sweetheart	159	C+	13	146	8.18%	98	-3	C+
96	Fuchsia	159	C+	14	145	8.81%	89	7	C+
97	Zach	159	C+	14	145	8.81%	90	7	C+
98	Rosalina	160	C+	9	151	5.63%	120	-22	C
99	Roxy	160	C+	11	149	6.88%	111	-12	C+
100	Yekaterina	160	C+	17	143	10.63%	75	25	B-
101	Dusky	160	C+	18	142	11.25%	69	32	B-
102	Sprinkles	161	C+	12	149	7.45%	112	-10	C+
103	Charli	161	C+	15	146	9.32%	99	4	C+
104	Potter	161	C+	15	146	9.32%	100	4	C+
105	Wario	161	C+	15	146	9.32%	101	4	C+
106	Daisy	161	C+	16	145	9.94%	91	15	C+
107	Twinkie I	161	C+	16	145	9.94%	92	15	C+
108	Shawn	161	C+	18	143	11.18%	76	32	B-
109	Bianca	162	C	12	150	7.41%	115	-6	C
110	Gradley	162	C	12	150	7.41%	116	-6	C
111	Goatee	162	C	13	149	8.02%	113	-2	C+
112	Kayla	162	C	13	149	8.02%	114	-2	C+
113	Stinky	162	C	14	148	8.64%	106	7	C+
114	Ms. Puppy	163	C	7	156	4.29%	133	-19	C-
115	Paige	163	C	9	154	5.52%	130	-15	C
116	Dustin	163	C	11	152	6.75%	122	-6	C
117	Twinkie III	164	C	12	152	7.32%	123	-6	C
118	Leandra	164	C	14	150	8.54%	117	1	C
119	Chelsea	164	C	16	148	9.76%	107	12	C+
120	Luigi	164	C	19	145	11.59%	93	27	C+
121	Strut	165	C	13	152	7.88%	124	-3	C
122	Nightfur	165	C	14	151	8.48%	121	1	C
123	Fluffina	165	C	17	148	10.30%	108	15	C+
124	Paps	165	C	17	148	10.30%	109	15	C+
125	Neopolitan	166	C	13	153	7.83%	127	-2	C
126	Jake	166	C	16	150	9.64%	118	8	C
127	Bright	167	C-	11	156	6.59%	134	-7	C-
128	Stephanie	167	C-	13	154	7.78%	131	-3	C
129	Patches	167	C-	15	152	8.98%	125	4	C
130	Dominic	167	C-	17	150	10.18%	119	11	C
131	Salmo	171	C-	14	157	8.19%	135	-4	C-
132	Lexi	171	C-	19	152	11.11%	126	6	C
133	Nikolai	172	D+	19	153	11.05%	128	5	C
134	Caitlin	173	D+	14	159	8.09%	137	-3	C-
135	Spice	173	D+	16	157	9.25%	136	-1	C-
136	Smudge	173	D+	20	153	11.56%	129	7	C
137	Blizzard	174	D+	19	155	10.92%	132	5	C-
138	Midnight	177	D	15	162	8.47%	139	-1	D+
139	Niki	177	D	16	161	9.04%	138	1	D+
140	Rainmane	179	D	14	165	7.82%	141	-1	D
141	Chris	179	D	15	164	8.38%	140	1	D+
142	Twilight	180	D	14	166	7.78%	142	0	D
143	Strawberry	183	D-	12	171	6.56%	144	-1	D-
144	Panda	189	F+	22	167	11.64%	143	1	D
		154.0416666667		12.0486111111	141.9930555556	7.76%
		12.3202460015		3.6990451633	10.5495809268
		22182		1735	20447	7.82%

What we have here is a ranks chart for all the players. At the bottom you'll find the average, standard deviation, and total for the actual scores, errors, and raw scores. This is just like last year, although I think, due to limitations with the editing technology, I cannot color code it this year. However, a simple reading is enough to get by. On the topic of comparing to 2016, let's look at how things went year-over-year.

	2016	2017	Change
7ball	11.6	10.47	-1.13
8ball	22.08	20.42	-1.66
9ball	14.03	14.06	0.03
10ball	17.66	16.35	-1.31
12ball	21.93	21.44	-0.49
Rotation	28.91	27.51	-1.4
15ball	26.94	24.67	-2.27
Accuracy	20.14	19.13	-1.01
Combined	163.29	154.05	-9.24
Errors	11.4	12.05	0.65
Raw	151.89	141.99	-9.9

As you can see, scoring during qualifiers is down by a significant amount in just about every way. Two notable exceptions to this rule are the marks seen in 9-ball and the Errors count. While it was a marginal increase in shots per game for 9-ball, which can be wholly attributed to the aberration of making no 9-balls on the break, the mark in errors is harder to explain. My theory is that players played a more impatient game this year, leading to more intentional errors in games like Rotation and 15-ball, where maintaining a low score proved more important than playing the game with any level of integrity. Still, the change in errors per game is just an additional one every ten games, so it's not much to be concerned about, and it certainly didn't have a negative effect on scoring.

For the cues, it was another interesting year. The data and results from 2016 are significantly outdated for the purposes of analysis here on a cue level, as both the red cue and silver cue received needed upgrades. The red cue switched shafts completely after a screw-in error, while the silver cue had the mid-qualifiers re-tipping scandal. Each cue played a total of 384 games, representing 48 games per event.

	Red	Blue	Silver	Total
7-ball	485	515	507	1507
8-ball	974	996	971	2941
9-ball	687	664	673	2024
10-ball	737	777	840	2354
12-ball	1062	993	1032	3087
Rotation	1317	1323	1321	3961
15-ball	1166	1127	1260	3553
Accuracy	889	941	925	2755
Combined	7317	7336	7529	22182

Compared to last year, the results for each stick are much closer. The red cue won four events (7-ball, 10-ball, Rotation, and Accuracy) as well as the Combined score by a very small margin. the blue cue was hit or miss, winning 9-ball, 12-ball, and 15-ball, while the silver cue was very close in a number of events but only took the title in 8-ball. On a shots per-game basis, the red cue needed 19.05, besting the blue cue by just .05 shots per game (one shot per 20 games), as it finished at 19.10. The silver cue was far worse, clocking in at 19.61, approximately a half a shot worse per game, but that can be attributed to the declining state of the original tip.

As is always important to keep in mind, while the study conducted here was fairly extensive, it cannot incorporate every possible result that could occur in the Tournament. I would hazard a guess that more errors are common, leaving possession in a very fluid position for each game. The overall quality of the play should be better this year, and not having byes in the B-level bracket is a major positive for this year. Unfortunately, that will not be the case as the league is prepared to make radical changes for the eighth Tournament, including byes on a single-level bracket that will put more importance on Qualifying than ever before. With that, I'll be spending a few days to play cricket, create the new brackets for this year, and take care of personal business as my start of a job hunt commences very shortly. I'll be posting through the weekend if all goes well.