2016 Qualifiers - Analysis

I will warn you, there is about to be a very long graph attached in this post. I think it's fair to get all the data out there for the player portion. For clarification of some of the terms as the column labels on the graph, errors refer to any illegal contact, missed contact, scratches, illegally potted balls, or ball off table fouls that earned a penalty of one shot tacked onto the player's score. A Raw Total is the player's total shots minus errors, and the Error Proportion refers to the percentage of shots that were charged, not taken, in the player's total. The grade offers a stratification (based on five-shot intervals) to define comparable performance between players, and is color-coded for simplicity, with gold, silver, and bronze being elite, and the rest from excellent to catastrophic fading from a cool blue to a bright red. The Change column shows the theoretical change in rank if errors were removed from the equation. A player with a blue-shaded change improved their rank, a gray-shaded change stayed mostly neutral, and a red-shaded change dropped in rank. Now, here's to the graph.

Player	Rank	Total	Grade	Errors	Raw Total	Error prop	Revised rank	Change	Revised Grade
Wild Thing	1	126	A++	6	120	4.76%	1	0	A+
Paige	2	131	A+	4	127	3.05%	4	-2	A+
Lydia	3	131	A+	7	124	5.34%	3	0	A+
Americus	4	134	A+	11	123	8.21%	2	2	A+
Juno	5	137	A+	6	131	4.38%	7	-2	A
Ms. Puppy	6	138	A+	8	130	5.80%	5	1	A
Amber	7	138	A+	8	130	5.80%	6	1	A
Cheddar	8	141	A	8	133	5.67%	11	-3	A
Twinkie II	9	143	A	2	141	1.40%	29	-20	B+
Mams	10	143	A	11	132	7.69%	9	1	A
Gradley	11	144	A	6	138	4.17%	15	-4	A-
Sierra	12	144	A	12	132	8.33%	10	2	A
Sugar	13	145	A-	14	131	9.66%	8	5	A
Chelsea	14	146	A-	7	139	4.79%	18	-4	A-
Shiny	15	147	A-	8	139	5.44%	19	-4	A-
Acorn	16	147	A-	9	138	6.12%	16	0	A-
Pedey	17	147	A-	12	135	8.16%	12	5	A-
Shawn	18	148	A-	9	139	6.08%	20	-2	A-
Citrus	19	148	A-	8	140	5.41%	26	-7	B+
Twilight	20	148	A-	8	140	5.41%	27	-7	B+
Yekaterina Vasilyeva	21	148	A-	12	136	8.11%	14	7	A-
Roxy	22	149	A-	10	139	6.71%	21	1	A-
Jack	23	149	A-	7	142	4.70%	31	-8	B+
Leonardo	24	150	B+	11	139	7.33%	22	2	A-
Max	25	150	B+	15	135	10.00%	13	12	A-
Misty	26	150	B+	7	143	4.67%	34	-8	B+
Dreamy	27	150	B+	12	138	8.00%	17	10	A-
B. Chapman	28	151	B+	11	140	7.28%	28	0	B+
Marsell	29	151	B+	12	139	7.95%	23	6	A-
Mr. Snowman	30	151	B+	12	139	7.95%	24	6	A-
Dusky	31	151	B+	6	145	3.97%	37	-6	B
Nikolai	32	152	B+	10	142	6.58%	32	0	B+
Taylor Swift	33	153	B+	7	146	4.58%	39	-6	B
Dustin	34	153	B+	12	141	7.84%	30	4	B+
Cubby	35	154	B+	15	139	9.74%	25	10	A-
Neopolitan	36	154	B+	9	145	5.84%	38	-2	B
Ice Cream	37	154	B+	7	147	4.55%	46	-9	B
Kelly	38	155	B	13	142	8.39%	33	5	B+
Chimpy	39	155	B	9	146	5.81%	40	-1	B
Nicole	40	156	B	13	143	8.33%	35	5	B+
Goatee	41	156	B	10	146	6.41%	41	0	B
Princess	42	157	B	11	146	7.01%	42	0	B
Kirstin	43	157	B	8	149	5.10%	53	-10	B
Oreo	44	157	B	9	148	5.73%	48	-4	B
Puff I	45	157	B	13	144	8.28%	36	9	B+
Graham	46	158	B	10	148	6.33%	49	-3	B
Alyssa	47	158	B	12	146	7.59%	43	4	B
Paps	48	159	B	12	147	7.55%	47	1	B
Boots	49	159	B	13	146	8.18%	44	5	B
Panda	50	160	B-	10	150	6.25%	57	-7	B-
Dominic	51	160	B-	8	152	5.00%	64	-13	B-
Zach	52	160	B-	12	148	7.50%	50	2	B
Twinkie III	53	160	B-	12	148	7.50%	51	2	B
Chicky Phil	54	161	B-	11	150	6.83%	58	-4	B-
Sweetheart	55	161	B-	12	149	7.45%	54	1	B
Strut	56	161	B-	12	149	7.45%	55	1	B
Shaggy	57	161	B-	8	153	4.97%	66	-9	B-
Stripes	58	162	B-	16	146	9.88%	45	13	B
Cassandra	59	162	B-	12	150	7.41%	59	0	B-
Puff II	60	162	B-	13	149	8.02%	56	4	B
Twinkie I	61	162	B-	11	151	6.79%	61	0	B-
Diddley	62	162	B-	14	148	8.64%	52	10	B
Shannon	63	163	B-	11	152	6.75%	65	-2	B-
Precious	64	163	B-	7	156	4.29%	80	-16	C+
Bear	65	164	B-	11	153	6.71%	67	-2	B-
Starlight	66	164	B-	13	151	7.93%	62	4	B-
Ruby	67	164	B-	11	153	6.71%	68	-1	B-
Kavan	68	165	C+	8	157	4.85%	83	-15	C+
Leonette	69	165	C+	11	154	6.67%	72	-3	B-
Ms. Kitty	70	165	C+	10	155	6.06%	75	-5	C+
Bells	71	165	C+	10	155	6.06%	76	-5	C+
Pounce	72	165	C+	5	160	3.03%	97	-25	C
Whiskers	73	165	C+	15	150	9.09%	60	13	B-
Shelley	74	165	C+	12	153	7.27%	69	5	B-
Bright	75	165	C+	11	154	6.67%	73	2	B-
Nightfur	76	166	C+	13	153	7.83%	70	6	B-
Leandra	77	166	C+	15	151	9.04%	63	14	B-
Watermelon	78	166	C+	7	159	4.22%	91	-13	C+
Brownie	79	166	C+	11	155	6.63%	77	2	C+
Lorde	80	167	C+	6	161	3.59%	100	-20	C
Strawberry	81	167	C+	9	158	5.39%	86	-5	C+
Hoot	82	168	C+	9	159	5.36%	92	-10	C+
Dani	83	168	C+	15	153	8.93%	71	12	B-
Spice	84	168	C+	10	158	5.95%	87	-3	C+
Slinks	85	168	C+	8	160	4.76%	98	-13	C
Kayla	86	168	C+	13	155	7.74%	78	8	C+
Shadow	87	168	C+	6	162	3.57%	105	-18	C
Gizmo	88	169	C+	10	159	5.92%	93	-5	C+
Smudge	89	170	C	12	158	7.06%	88	1	C+
Rainmane	90	170	C	12	158	7.06%	89	1	C+
Valencia	91	171	C	16	155	9.36%	79	12	C+
Cowzart	92	171	C	14	157	8.19%	84	8	C+
Wings	93	171	C	10	161	5.85%	101	-8	C
Gabe	94	171	C	14	157	8.19%	85	9	C+
Snuggle	95	171	C	10	161	5.85%	102	-7	C
Stinky	96	172	C	13	159	7.56%	94	2	C+
Sydney Sierota	97	172	C	18	154	10.47%	74	23	B-
Stealth	98	172	C	10	162	5.81%	106	-8	C
Kiwi	99	173	C	9	164	5.20%	111	-12	C
Sparkles	100	173	C	13	160	7.51%	99	1	C
Smokey	101	173	C	12	161	6.94%	103	-2	C
Goldy	102	174	C	12	162	6.90%	107	-5	C
J. Garcia	103	174	C	18	156	10.34%	81	22	C+
Missy	104	174	C	18	156	10.34%	82	22	C+
Dusty	105	174	C	12	162	6.90%	108	-3	C
Spirit	106	174	C	9	165	5.17%	114	-8	C-
Sleepy B.	107	175	C-	8	167	4.57%	118	-11	C-
Sally	108	175	C-	17	158	9.71%	90	18	C+
Midnight	109	175	C-	11	164	6.29%	112	-3	C
Tigerette	110	176	C-	14	162	7.95%	109	1	C
Sprinkles	111	176	C-	17	159	9.66%	95	16	C+
Patches	112	177	C-	16	161	9.04%	104	8	C
Jake	113	178	C-	10	168	5.62%	120	-7	C-
Chris	114	178	C-	14	164	7.87%	113	1	C
Lionel	115	178	C-	15	163	8.43%	110	5	C
Frosty	116	179	C-	20	159	11.17%	96	20	C+
Crystal	117	179	C-	12	167	6.70%	119	-2	C-
Blizzard	118	180	D+	14	166	7.78%	117	1	C-
Jennifer Livilotti	119	180	D+	9	171	5.00%	124	-5	D+
Fluffina	120	183	D+	13	170	7.10%	123	-3	D+
Cleo	121	185	D	14	171	7.57%	125	-4	D+
Delila	122	185	D	20	165	10.81%	115	7	C-
A. Charlton	123	185	D	14	171	7.57%	126	-3	D+
Jasmine	124	186	D	18	168	9.68%	121	3	C-
Noelle	125	186	D	21	165	11.29%	116	9	C-
Easter	126	186	D	10	176	5.38%	129	-3	D
Puff III	127	188	D	16	172	8.51%	127	0	D+
Charli XCX	128	188	D	19	169	10.11%	122	6	C-
Debby Ryan	129	192	D-	17	175	8.85%	128	1	D
Niki	130	195	F+	14	181	7.18%	130	0	D-
Bryant	131	198	F+	14	184	7.07%	131	0	D-
Snowball	132	205	F-	16	189	7.80%	132	0	F+
		163.30		11.40	151.89	6.93%
		14.44		3.49	12.72
		21555		1505	20050	6.98%

At the bottom you'll find the average, standard deviation, and total for the actual scores, errors, and raw scores. For the actual scores (which are the only ones that matter, as they are used for tiebreaking purposes in individual game ranking), the scores break down like this into intervals.

Interval	Frequency
<129	1
130-139	6
140-144	5
145-149	11
150-154	14
155-159	12
160-164	18
165-169	21
170-174	18
175-179	11
180-184	3
185-189	8
190-194	1
195-199	2
>200	1

The data, as you can infer (I made a chart, but it won't copy in), follows a roughly normal distribution, with a slight left skew. This makes the well-ranked players (we're talking top 20 or so) a little more quick to pile up than the bottom five intervals, which delineate more shot intervals, but feature fewer players.

Now, we have a table for the cues. For the sake of simplicity here, I will only post total shots for each individual game, and combined. The average can be inferred, dividing the total shots by 352 games in the overall total, and by 44 in each individual total. The 352 is the number of games shot by each cue, while the 44 is the number of games shot by each cue in each specific event. The table would be too cluttered if we examined these separately, and the standard deviation and consistency metrics involved are fascinating but not relevant to the purpose of analyzing the shots patterns.

	Red	Blue	Silver	Total
7-ball	572	440	519	1531
8-ball	974	991	950	2915
9-ball	641	570	641	1852
10-ball	759	774	798	2331
12-ball	1018	880	997	2895
Rotation	1302	1234	1280	3816
15-ball	1252	1232	1072	3556
Accuracy	884	848	927	2659
Combined	7402	6969	7184	21555

As the data shows here, the blue cue was approximately 1.23 shots per game better than the red cue, across all competitions, and 0.61 shots per game better than the silver cue, which logically leaves the silver cue about 0.62 shots per game better than the red cue. What this indicates is a general tendency for the blue cue players ranked in the mid-30s for their event and cue to feel, pardon the pun, shafted. The silver cue is most representative of the average player, coming just about two hundred-thousandths short of a perfectly proportional mark. The blue cue is significantly better, while the red cue is significantly worse, in general. The most interesting locations for dissent in this occur in 8-ball, which favored the silver cue most, but to an extent of less than one shot per game, which should not cause too much chaos. In 15-ball, the silver cue is a heavy favorite, with red and blue players likely getting the advantage of sneaking into a top-32. The most statistically tight game is 10-ball, with the distribution pattern opposite of the expected pattern as well.

With that rousing statistical discussion covered, the next two days involve some heavy work for me, as bracket formation and first-round matchups for A and B-level play will be determined and transcribed into all resources tomorrow and Friday. The first table in this post should assist you in determining which players you should most pay attention to this season, as well as which players may face an uphill climb. The Errors column is also a fantastic resource, as it shows the players who will likely struggle in competition more by giving their opponent free possession most often. With about 1.5 errors per game, the difference between a win and a loss could be being the only one to make an error or two in the game. If you'd like to proffer questions to me about the data provided, I'll gladly accept any and all comments.